UEFA Nations League
Prediction
Under 3.5 goals80.4%
The likeliest outcome across every market the engine prices, in the goals market. That selection lands 72.3% of the time across every completed match on record, so this fixture accounts for +8.1 points of it.
All three independent estimators favour the same outcome. That is the strongest form this engine has: they are built on different evidence and still land together.
The engine’s strongest selection in each market it can price. “Base” is how often that selection actually lands across every completed match on record, so the lift beside it, not the probability, is what this fixture adds. Over 1.5 goals lands in three matches out of four on its own.
| Market | Call | Model | Base | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 55.8% | 42.3% | +13.5 |
| Double chance | Home or draw | 80.7% | 67.2% | +13.5 |
| Draw no bet | Home (draw no bet) | 74.3% | 56.3% | +18.0 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 goals | 80.4% | 72.3% | +8.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams not to score | 57.8% | 53.6% | +4.2 |
| Half-time goals | Over 0.5 goals at half-time | 61.5% | 66.1% | -4.6 |
A dash means the market has too little history on record to judge the call against, which is not the same as a lift of zero.
Expected goals (home)
1.53
Expected goals (away)
0.74
Both teams score
42.2%
Most likely score
1-0
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% | Baseline |
| 2.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% | Baseline |
| 3.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% | Baseline |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 61.5% | 38.5% | Baseline |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 8.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 9.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
This competition has no corner data, so these lines cannot be priced.
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 3.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 4.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
This competition has no card data, so these lines cannot be priced.
