GuineaPrediction
Over 0.5 goals at half-time75.8%
The likeliest outcome across every market the engine prices, in the half-time goals market. That selection lands 66.1% of the time across every completed match on record, so this fixture accounts for +9.7 points of it.
The engine’s strongest selection in each market it can price. “Base” is how often that selection actually lands across every completed match on record, so the lift beside it, not the probability, is what this fixture adds. Over 1.5 goals lands in three matches out of four on its own.
| Market | Call | Model | Base | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 48.7% | 44.8% | +3.9 |
| Double chance | Home or draw | 74.4% | 67.9% | +6.5 |
| Draw no bet | Home (draw no bet) | 65.6% | 58.3% | +7.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 goals | 76.1% | 76.4% | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams not to score | 53.8% | 57.6% | -3.8 |
| Half-time goals | Over 0.5 goals at half-time | 75.8% | 66.1% | +9.7 |
A dash means the market has too little history on record to judge the call against, which is not the same as a lift of zero.
Best-priced selection:Over 3.5at7.00
Fair price 4.18 against an offered price of 7.00 (+67.3% expected value). One or both sides have too few matches for their rating to mean much, so this gap reflects what the model does not know rather than value.
This is the price, not the prediction. The best-priced selection is frequently the least likely outcome on the fixture, and the engine’s last recorded backtest against bookmaker odds lost 6.74%. A large positive figure here is a reason to look harder, not a reason to bet.
Expected goals (home)
1.37
Expected goals (away)
0.83
Both teams score
46.2%
Most likely score
1-0
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% | Model |
| 2.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% | Model |
| 3.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% | Model |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 75.8% | 24.2% | Model |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 8.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 9.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
This competition has no corner data, so these lines cannot be priced.
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 3.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
| 4.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
This competition has no card data, so these lines cannot be priced.
