Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction

Calls by market

The engine’s strongest selection in each market it can price. “Base” is how often that selection actually lands across every completed match on record, so the lift beside it, not the probability, is what this fixture adds. Over 1.5 goals lands in three matches out of four on its own.

A dash means the market has too little history on record to judge the call against, which is not the same as a lift of zero.

Best-priced selection:Awayat3.18

Model

32.1%

Market implies

31.4%

Fair price

3.12

Expected value

+2.1%

Fair price 3.12 against an offered price of 3.18 (+2.1% expected value). Model 32% against market 31%. This is the price, not the forecast — 2 of 2 estimators make Home the likelier result.

This is the price, not the prediction. The best-priced selection is frequently the least likely outcome on the fixture, and the engine’s last recorded backtest against bookmaker odds lost 6.74%. A large positive figure here is a reason to look harder, not a reason to bet.