English Premier League
Prediction
Home or draw94.4%
The likeliest outcome across every market the engine prices, in the double chance market. That selection lands 68.0% of the time across every completed match on record, so this fixture accounts for +26.4 points of it.
All three independent estimators favour the same outcome. That is the strongest form this engine has: they are built on different evidence and still land together.
The engine’s strongest selection in each market it can price. “Base” is how often that selection actually lands across every completed match on record, so the lift beside it, not the probability, is what this fixture adds. Over 1.5 goals lands in three matches out of four on its own.
| Market | Call | Model | Base | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 83.7% | 44.2% | +39.5 |
| Double chance | Home or draw | 94.4% | 68.0% | +26.4 |
| Draw no bet | Home (draw no bet) | 93.6% | 58.1% | +35.5 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 goals | 92.3% | 77.9% | +14.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams not to score | 52.8% | 47.3% | +5.5 |
| Half-time goals | Over 0.5 goals at half-time | 92.6% | 71.6% | +21.0 |
| Corners | Over 7.5 corners | 91.3% | 79.3% | +12.0 |
| Cards | Over 2.5 cards | 78.1% | 68.1% | +10.0 |
A dash means the market has too little history on record to judge the call against, which is not the same as a lift of zero.
Best-priced selection:Over 3.5at2.02
Fair price 1.67 against an offered price of 2.02 (+21.0% expected value). Model 60% against market 50%. Estimator agreement is measured on the match result, not this market.
This is the price, not the prediction. The best-priced selection is frequently the least likely outcome on the fixture, and the engine’s last recorded backtest against bookmaker odds lost 6.74%. A large positive figure here is a reason to look harder, not a reason to bet.
Expected goals (home)
3.53
Expected goals (away)
0.66
Both teams score
47.2%
Most likely score
3-0
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92.3% | 7.7% | Baseline |
| 2.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% | Baseline |
| 3.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% | Baseline |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92.6% | 7.4% | Baseline |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 91.3% | 8.7% | Baseline |
| 8.5 | 85.1% | 14.9% | Baseline |
| 9.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% | Baseline |
| Line | Over | Under | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% | Baseline |
| 3.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% | Baseline |
| 4.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% | Baseline |
